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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.