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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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